Examining Kenya's Failed Attempts at African Union Commission Leadership in 2017 and 2025

Amina Mohammed
Raila Amollo Odinga 
Introduction
The African Union (AU) is a body dedicated to fostering a united, thriving, and a harmonious Africa. Kenya has attempted the African Union Commission (AUC) leadership twice. This occured in 2017 and 2025 recently. Surprisingly, Kenya has faced two defeats in both elections. This has prompted a reassessment of factors contributing towards such defeats.

2017 Election: Amina Mohammed's Candidacy
In 2017, Kenya's Foreign Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohammed was a favorite for African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson as a top diplomat. She lost the competition to Chad's Moussa Faki Mahamat due to intense lobbying. A number of factors played towards this result.

Campaign Strategy Breakdowns
Former Ambassador Macharia Kamau said that Kenya's campaign anticipated strategy breakdowns. The breakdowns included premature exposure of plans, with opponents being able to act against them with effectiveness.

Geopolitical Realities
Kenya was ambivalent towards admitting Morocco into the African Union (AU). Moreover, Kenya's hard sell of simultaneous withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC) may very well have lost Kenya's potential allies.

Regional Splits
The election unveiled deep-rooted regional cleavages in the African Union (AU). The regional affiliations influenced voting behavior more than the competence of the candidates.

2025 Election: Raila Odinga's Attempt
In 2025, Kenya's former Prime Minister Raila Amollo Odinga also ran for African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship. He lost against Foreign Minister of Djibouti, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf. A number of factors played a part in the defeat.

Political Alliances
Raila Odinga's political realignment with William Ruto's presidency can be viewed as a compromise of his historical demands for good governance. Therefore, there could be a fall in his popularity hence he is known for liberation. This may be impacted by President Ruto's second rank in the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) Corrupt Person of the Year award 2024 and his government's failure to combat government critics abductions appropriately.

Regional Variations in Support
With the exception of the start, the election proceeded for seven rounds. This implied insecure support and strategic votes from member states.

Internal Politics
Politicians such as Kalonzo Musyoka, made assertions of possible undermining of Odinga's campaign from within, including President Ruto.

Conclusion
Kenya's unsuccessful 2017 and 2025 African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship campaigns are indicative of the tangled web of geopolitics, campaign strategy, and national political exchanges. The experiences suggest the importance of astute diplomacy, collective national approaches, and astute perception of continent-wide politics for improved performance in future continent-wide races.

































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